I drew a different conclusion to your analysis. Your example is a drone carrier with 50 drones attacking a SAG. The math shows that this attack will be unsuccessful. That “success” is defined as the SAG was not sunk. Can’t argue with the math. While both sides are still afloat they are also both shot out. (The SAG probably isn’t empty but certainly can’t defend itself from another similar attack.) So everyone has to go home to re-arm. Who won in that case? The drone carrier drove off the SAG so it’s the same as them not being there anymore. Whether on offense or defense, the drone carrier’s side can continue operations without worrying about the SAG.
We might be better incrementally adjusting platforms and tactics while mass producing and let Joe figure it out. He’s highly motivated, people are trying to kill him.
Currently we incrementally produce all systems and for that matter soldiers, sailors, airmen while massively adjusting doctrine… and massively producing papers.
I drew a different conclusion to your analysis. Your example is a drone carrier with 50 drones attacking a SAG. The math shows that this attack will be unsuccessful. That “success” is defined as the SAG was not sunk. Can’t argue with the math. While both sides are still afloat they are also both shot out. (The SAG probably isn’t empty but certainly can’t defend itself from another similar attack.) So everyone has to go home to re-arm. Who won in that case? The drone carrier drove off the SAG so it’s the same as them not being there anymore. Whether on offense or defense, the drone carrier’s side can continue operations without worrying about the SAG.
Agree on Drones and Drone swarming.
Not navy, but are we restricted to surface warfare? An Arleigh Burke cruiser is 8000-9700 tons, at $2.2B apiece.
They could conceivably be sunk for $2 million.
To move beyond ships;
Have you heard of RAPID DRAGON? Palletized missile launch system.
Any cargo aircraft just became a bomber with standoff.
https://youtube.com/shorts/YyCp1mTMI88?si=sc4twKwqWSY1eb1T
We might be better incrementally adjusting platforms and tactics while mass producing and let Joe figure it out. He’s highly motivated, people are trying to kill him.
Currently we incrementally produce all systems and for that matter soldiers, sailors, airmen while massively adjusting doctrine… and massively producing papers.
I agree on all major points.
HNY
Thanks for the comment!
I haven't looked at "Rapid Dragon". From the video, it appears to be an interesting and potentially effective concept.